PanamaTimes

Friday, Feb 27, 2026

IMF demands interest rate rises as UK set for weakest growth among G7 economies next year

IMF demands interest rate rises as UK set for weakest growth among G7 economies next year

The International Monetary Fund's prescription for dealing with the cost of living crisis is likely to be seized upon by Rishi Sunak's supporters as evidence that his blueprint is the right course for the UK government to take.

The world's lender of last resort has appealed for central banks to raise interest rates and for governments to take a responsible stance with public finances while warning of a harder impact from the global inflation shock.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) used its updated World Economic Outlook to take another red pen to growth forecasts as economies battle the impact of rising prices.

It said that growth was "stalling" in the world's three largest economies (the US, China and eurozone) as a consequence of the deteriorating picture for inflation, linked to the COVID pandemic and latterly Russia's war in Ukraine, forecasting that the problem would remain more stubborn than predicted in its previous update.

Chillingly it warned that under a "plausible" scenario, downside risks for the global economy including a complete shutdown in Russian gas supplies to Europe and prolonged zero-COVID lockdowns in China would result in one of the worst performances for output since 1970 if realised.

The fund's new forecasts saw global growth of 3.2% for 2022 - a downwards revision of 0.4% on April's forecast.

Much of that figure was accounted for by a massive 1.4% downgrade for the United States - the world's largest economy.

The IMF said it now expected growth of just 2.3% this year as a result of an inflation rate that, like in the UK, was at a 40-year high.

It said that disruption to trade flows with China was another big factor behind the downgrade and warned growth would stall further, to just 1%, in 2023.



The report downgraded its expectations for Chinese growth this year by 1.1% to just 3.3% as it also faces inflationary pressures but also battles COVID outbreaks through shutdowns of major cities that have inflicted huge damage on its manufacturing sector.

The UK, the IMF projected, would see a growth of 3.2% this year - above those of its biggest competitors including France and Germany - but it repeated its forecast that output would ease significantly to just 0.5% in 2023 to become the slowest among the G7.

Russia was tipped to see its economy contract by 6% this year and by 3.5% in 2023 as it grapples with the effects of Western sanctions.

The sanctions imposed over the war in Ukraine have exacerbated the global inflation problem as it has forced countries to scramble for alternative supplies of key commodities including wheat, sunflower oil, oil and natural gas.

The IMF urged central bank and government action to help bring down inflationary pressures, with its fiscal prescription favouring the stance taken by former chancellor Rishi Sunak as he battles Liz Truss for the Tory leadership and keys to Number 10.

"With increasing prices continuing to squeeze living standards worldwide, taming inflation should be the first priority for policymakers", the fund said.

"Tighter monetary policy will inevitably have real economic costs, but the delay will only exacerbate them.

"Targeted fiscal support can help cushion the impact on the most vulnerable, but with government budgets stretched by the pandemic and the need for a disinflationary overall macroeconomic policy stance, such policies will need to be offset by increased taxes or lower government spending."

The Conservative leadership race has been dominated by the candidates' approach to the cost of living crisis.

Ms Truss, the foreign secretary, favours a "bold" tax cut agenda to prevent the economy from going into reverse while the former occupant of Number 11 has ruled out giveaways in the short term for fear of fuelling inflation further.

The Bank of England, for its part, has raised the Bank rate at each meeting since December last year but is under pressure to opt for a sharper hike at its meeting early next month.

Governor Andrew Bailey has said that a 50 basis points increase, which would take its core rate to 1.75%, is on the table but not necessarily on the cards.

Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the fund's chief economist, wrote: "Tighter monetary policy will inevitably have real economic costs, but delaying it will only exacerbate the hardship.

"Central banks that have started tightening should stay the course until inflation is tamed."

Newsletter

Related Articles

PanamaTimes
0:00
0:00
Close
President Trump warns countries against abandoning recent trade deals with the US
Unitree Robotics founder Wang Xingxing showcases future robot deployment during Spring Festival Gala.
Cuba adopts electric tricycles for transport amid fuel shortages
Cuba's fuel crisis leads to mounting waste in Havana
Eighty-Year-Old Lottery Winner Sentenced to 16.5 Years for Drug Trafficking
UK Green Party Considering Proposal to Legalize Heroin for an Inclusive Society
Investigation Launched at Winter Olympics Over Ski Jumpers Injecting Hyaluronic Acid
Wall Street Erases All Gains of 2026; Bitcoin Plummets 14% to $63,000
Cuba Warns It Has Only Weeks of Oil Remaining as US Pressure Tightens
The AI Hiring Doom Loop — Algorithmic Recruiting Filters Out Top Talent and Rewards Average or Fake Candidates
WhatsApp Develops New Meta AI Features to Enhance User Control
U.S. winter storm triggers 13,000-plus flight cancellations and 160,000 power outages
America’s Venezuela Oil Grip Meets China’s Demand: Market Power, Legal Shockwaves, and the New Rules of Energy Leverage
There is no sovereign immunity for poisoning millions with drugs.
President Trump Says United States Will Administer Venezuela Until a Secure Leadership Transition
Delta Force Identified as Unit Behind U.S. Operation That Captured Venezuela’s President
Trump Announces U.S. Large-Scale Strike on Venezuela, Declares President Maduro and Wife Captured
The Pilot Barricaded Himself in the Cockpit and Refused to Take Off: "We Are Not Leaving Until I Receive My Salary"
Hackers Are Hiding Malware in Open-Source Tools and IDE Extensions
White House launches ‘Hall of Shame’ site to publicly condemn media outlets for alleged bias
Families Accuse OpenAI of Enabling ‘AI-Driven Delusions’ After Multiple Suicides
Maduro Tightens Security Measures as U.S. Strike Threat Intensifies
U.S. Issues Alert Declaring Venezuelan Airspace a Hazard Due to Escalating Security Conditions
A Decade of Innovation Stagnation at Apple: The Cook Era Critique
Nancy Pelosi Finally Announces She Will Not Seek Re-Election, Signalling End of Long Congressional Career
Erling Haaland’s Remarkable Run: 13 Premier League Goals in 10 Matches and Eyes on History
White House Refutes Reports That US Targeting Military Sites in Venezuela
Hurricane Melissa Strikes Cuba After Devastating Jamaica With Record Winds
U.S. Targets Maritime Narco-Routes While Border Pressure to Mexico Remains Limited
Argentina’s Markets Surge as Milei’s Party Secures Major Win
U.S. Treasury Sanctions Colombia’s President Gustavo Petro over Drug-Trafficking Allegations
‘I Am Not Done’: Kamala Harris Signals Possible 2028 White House Run
Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa Alleges Poison Plot via Chocolate and Jam
Trump Accuses Colombia’s President of Drug-Leadership and Announces End to US Aid
"The Tsunami Is Coming, and It’s Massive": The World’s Richest Man Unveils a New AI Vision
U.S. Treasury Mobilises New $20 Billion Debt Facility to Stabilise Argentina
A Dollar Coin Featuring Trump’s Portrait Expected to Be Issued Next Year
Trump Stands Firm in Shutdown Showdown and Declares War on Drug Cartels — Turning Crisis into Opportunity
FBI Strikes Deep in Maduro’s Financial Web with Bold Money-Laundering Indictments
Sean ‘Diddy’ Combs Sentenced to Fifty Months in Prison Following Prostitution Conviction
New World Screwworm Creeps Within Seventy Miles of U.S. Border, Threatening Cattle Sector
Colombian President Petro Vows to Mobilize Volunteers for Gaza and Joins List of Fighters
Trump Orders Third Lethal Strike on Drug-Trafficking Vessel as U.S. Expands Maritime Counter-Narcotics Operations
US Launches New Pilot Program to Accelerate eVTOL Air Taxi Deployment
New OpenAI Study Finds Majority of ChatGPT Use Is Personal, Not Professional
Actor, director, environmentalist Robert Redford dies at 89
Florida Hospital Welcomes Its Largest-Ever Baby: Annan, Nearly Fourteen Pounds at Birth
Could AI Nursing Robots Help Healthcare Staffing Shortages?
In a politically motivated trial: Bolsonaro Sentenced to 27 Years for Plotting Coup After 2022 Defeat
In a highly politically motivated trial, Brazil’s Supreme Court finds former leader Bolsonaro guilty of plotting coup
×