PanamaTimes

Thursday, Oct 29, 2026

Bank of England ramps up inflation forecast again but takes no action to help cool prices

Bank of England ramps up inflation forecast again but takes no action to help cool prices

The Bank cuts its expectations for UK growth and sees a greater risk to inflation from next spring as increased energy costs filter through.
The Bank of England has again ramped up its warnings about rising prices and admitted the economy is not growing as fast as it had expected.

However, it stopped short of taking action in a bid to help cool costs as its monetary policy committee (MPC) kept interest rates on hold and maintained the Bank's £895bn bond-buying support for the post-COVID economic recovery.

The Bank said its staff now expected growth during the current third quarter to come in 1% weaker than estimated just last month amid the deteriorating price boom.

The challenges include extra costs associated with a shortage of workers, global supply chain delays and surging energy prices, including the record rise in wholesale gas costs.

The latter is set to bite household finances in the months to come at a time when government COVID aid, including furlough cash and the Universal Credit uplift, will have been withdrawn.

The Bank has consistently pointed to a central view that the energy spike this year - the main cause of the price problem - would be "transitory".

It has blamed the bill pressures on the consequences of the economy reopening and seen the effects as temporary, despite concerns raised by its then-chief economist Andy Haldane.

The MPC then warned in August that a "modest tightening" of policy may be required to help cool prices as it predicted the consumer prices index (CPI) measure of inflation hitting a 10-year high of 4%.

It is currently at 3.2% following the largest leap on record.

The Bank said on Thursday that it now expected CPI to exceed 4% by the year's end.

The split on the MPC around tapering support grew as a second member, deputy governor Dave Ramsden, joined Michael Saunders in voting for an early end to government bond purchases.

A summary of the meeting read: "Since the August MPC meeting, the pace of recovery of global activity has showed signs of slowing.

"Against a backdrop of robust goods demand and continuing supply constraints, global inflationary pressures have remained strong and there are some signs that cost pressures may prove more persistent."

It added: "The material rise in spot and forward wholesale gas prices since the August Report represents an upside risk to the MPC's inflation projection from April 2022.

"Most other indicators of cost pressures have remained elevated. The Committee's central expectation continues to be that current elevated global cost pressures will prove transitory."

The Bank also said it would be watching carefully the impact of the furlough scheme's demise at the end of the month.

It delivered its verdict hours after a snapshot of private business activity pointed to stagnating economic growth and an acceleration in the pace of price increases - a scenario known as "stagflation".

The IHS Markit/CIPS flash purchasing managers' index survey showed confidence at its weakest since January.

Chris Williamson, IHS Markit's chief business economist, said of the findings: "While there are clear signs that demand is cooling since peaking in the second quarter, the survey also points to business activity being increasingly constrained by shortages of materials and labour, most notably in the manufacturing sector but also in some services firms.

"A lack of staff and components were especially widely cited as causing falls in output within the food, drink and vehicle manufacturing sectors.

"Shortages are meanwhile driving up prices at unprecedented rates as firms pass on higher supplier charges and increases in staff pay."

Commenting on the Bank of England meeting, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, Samuel Tombs, said: "The MPC is waiting until November to provide a clearer steer on the outlook for interest rates, as by then it will be able to make an initial assessment of the wind-down of the furlough scheme and review the latest fiscal plans in the October 27 Budget."
Newsletter

Related Articles

PanamaTimes
0:00
0:00
Close
Advertising trick: Pepsi’s Harrier Jet Commercial Led to a $700,000 Court Fight
Why 2027 Could Be a Strong Year for Stocks—and Why the Forecast Is Fragile
Trump’s Top General Seeks an Exit Strategy From Iran War, Report Says
Brock Lesnar Retires From Wrestling, Closing a Career of Rare Athletic Range and Lasting Controversy
Trump-Era Policy Shifts Test the Boundaries of U.S. Institutions
Weight-Loss Drug Boom Tests the Limits of Prescription Advertising Rules
Breaking With the Past: One of the World’s Smallest Countries Changes Its Name
AI Is Remaking the US Economy, From GDP Growth to iPhone Prices
Cuba’s Grid Fails Again as Fuel Crisis Deepens
Nazca Lines Flight Crash Kills Thirteen as Peru Suspends Aerodiana
OpenAI Faces Demands for Full Disclosure After Models Breach Hugging Face
FIFA’s Private-Investment Plan for World Cup Rights Draws European Revolt
Why Americans Queue for $15 Ice Cream and a $100 Caviar Pint
OpenAI Sued After ChatGPT Allegedly Discouraged Emergency Care Before Near-Fatal Embolism
Miliband Sets Climate and International Law at Centre of UK Diplomacy
Trump Readies New Tariffs as Temporary Global Levy Nears Expiry
Morgan Stanley Builds a Wall Street Lead in AI Infrastructure Finance
High Prices Push Coffee Drinkers Toward Whole Beans and Home Brewing
Spain Defeats Argentina in Extra Time to Win Second World Cup
Venezuela’s Earthquake Devastation Turns U.S. Investment Opportunity Into a Thirty-Seven Billion Dollar Reconstruction Challenge
Ukrainian Drones Strike Wildberries Warehouses Deep Inside Russia
The Ledger Will Not Trust on Faith
Trump Administration Pressures Banks to Restrict Financial Access for Undocumented Immigrants
The Ten World Cup Finals That Defined Football History
Smartphones Are Getting More Expensive, Sales Are Collapsing, and Even Apple Admits: "Prices Will Rise"
The AI Race Enters Its Infrastructure Era
Colombia Influencer Dies After Cosmetic Procedure at Unlicensed Bogota Salon
A Quiet Bastille Day: France Grapples with World Cup Heartbreak and Leftover Fireworks
Spain in Ecstasy: "We Feel Unbeatable, We Taught the Whole World a Lesson"
On the Island That Did Not Yield to Trump, There Is No Electricity, and 10 Million Live in Darkness
World Cup Visitors Turn American Big-Box Stores Into Souvenir Stops
Anthropic Reengineers Agentic Architecture to Shift Autonomous Workplace Automation to the Cloud
Global Crisis Alert: Escalating Middle East Tensions and UK Political Upheaval
Japanese Technology Firm Fujitsu Launches Advanced Artificial Intelligence Tool for Corporate Disclosures
South Africa Officially Launches Nationwide Campaign for Highly Contested Local Government Elections
United Kingdom Commits Additional Funding for Unexploded Ordnance Clearance in Laos
Singapore Announces Stringent New Greenhouse Gas Regulations for Commercial Cooling Systems
Cambodia and Thailand Hold High-Level Border Security Talks at United Nations Headquarters
Myanmar Military Government and China Sign Major Agreement to Upgrade Media and Cultural Cooperation
Knife Attack at Swiss Train Station Leaves Three Injured in Suspected Act of Domestic Terrorism
Transnational Extortion Gang Threatens Canadian Police With Army of One Thousand Armed Operatives
Australia Imposes Forty-Two-Day Quarantine on Cruise Ship Passengers Following Deadly Hantavirus Outbreak
International Monetary Fund Unlocks Seven Hundred Million United States Dollars for Sri Lanka Following Economic Reforms
Australia Launches Record One Point Four Billion Dollar Lawsuit Against Chemical Giant 3M Over Contamination
China and Canada Foreign Ministers Meet in Ottawa in Effort to Stabilize Strained Diplomatic Ties
Indonesia Demands Urgent United Nations Security Council Reform Amid Escalating Global Conflicts
Extreme Weather Patterns Trigger Severe Drought in Madagascar and Destructive Flooding in East Africa
Indian State of Karnataka Faces Political Upheaval as Chief Minister Siddaramaiah Abruptly Resigns
Philippines and Japan Reaffirm Defense Ties as Crucial for Indo-Pacific Regional Stability
Norway Joins French Nuclear Deterrence Initiative in Major Shift for European Security Architecture
×