In fact, the epidemiological week that runs from May 31 to June 6, could exceed 2,500 new cases, after the Ministry of Health reported yesterday 419 infected, for a total of 2,445 infected since last Sunday and until 5 of June.

Yesterday's epidemiological report reflects that, in total, there are 15,463 cases in the country, of which 9,719 are patients who have recovered; 4,964 are in isolation; 410, hospitalized (333 in wards and 77 in intensive care), and 370, deaths.

Second consecutive week, with more than 2,440 new cases

A downward trend in the registration of new cases of the Covid-19 disease, which transmits the SARS-CoV-2 virus, showed the epidemiology reports of the Ministry of Health (Minsa) between May 3 and 23.

During the epidemiological week between May 3 and 9, 1,192 new cases were registered; then, the week of May 10 to 16, the number dropped to 1,167, and in the week of May 17 to 23, the reported cases totaled 1,128. (See graph).

The scenario provided by the epidemiological indicators for that moment was encouraging, hopeful. Even on May 5, the Health authorities, at a press conference, reported that the speed of contagion of the virus had been slowed down.

The statements of the health authorities were based on the fact that the effective reproductive number or average value of Covid-19 infections that occur from one case, that is, the Rt, had decreased to 0.98 in the country (ideally 1 or less than 1), and that the cases were doubling every 20 days (ideally 10 days or more).

One month after

A month after that announcement, the picture is different: the country is exceeding 2,440 new cases per week.

The figures offered by the Minsa, for the week that runs from May 24 to 30, show that the number of new cases rose to 2,441, that is, more than double the number identified in the previous week (from 17 to 23 of May), when there were 1,128. (See graph).

Meanwhile, in the epidemiological week that started on May 31 –and ends on June 6–, until yesterday there were 2,445 new infections. We still have to add the cases reported today by the Minsa. This has been the week in which more new cases have been reported (and we still have to add today's ones), since Minsa reported the first contagion in Panama, on March 9 last.

Jorge Motta, former director of the Gorgas Commemorative Institute for Health Studies (Icges) and former national secretary of Science, Technology and Innovation, stated that the cases have been increasing since May 23, despite the fact that, in theory, during those days there had been a fairly strict quarantine in the country. "We have gone from 110 [daily] cases to more than 400 in the last week," he said.

The official report indicates that in the last three days of the last epidemiological week - May 28, 29 and 30 - just days before quarantine was lifted on June 1 and block 2 of economic activities was reactivated, more than 400 new cases were reported per day: 403 cases on May 28; 400 on May 29, and 487 on May 30.

According to Motta, the Minsa has done everything it can with the resources at its disposal; However, there is one variable that it cannot control: the behavior of the population, which is often conditioned by poverty and overcrowding. "This makes it almost impossible to separate people affected by the virus from those not affected, and thus the cycle of infection continues and is amplified," he said.

Xavier Sáez-Llorens, an infectologist and member of the Advisory Committee for Coronavirus of Minsa, said that the increase in cases is an expected phenomenon as the mitigation measures are made more flexible, but fortunately for now, with preservation of hospital capacity. He assured that the majority comes from active townships and with outbreaks in prisons.

The relaxation of the measures began on May 13, with the entry of block 1 of activities.

Warning

Yesterday, during a tour of Curundú, one of the districts of the capital with the most infections, the Minister of Health warned that if the citizens do not correctly apply the measures to mitigate the spread, the newly lifted restrictions will be applied again. "If the population does not follow the instructions, they will make us take the measures back to where we do not want to go," Turner said.

Currently, the Rt is at 1.28, and that is because there are 23 townships, the majority in Panama and West Panama, with an Rt greater than 1. If those 23 territories are excluded, the national Rt would be 0.96, since 60% of the townships do not register cases. Duplication of cases occurs every 18 days.